By Stephen Lacy
Professor, Department of Communication and School of Journalism, Michigan State University
Journalists face a crisis. The migration of readers, viewers and advertisers from newspaper and broadcast TV to the Web has combined with the current recession to eliminate jobs and raise concerns about the future of journalism itself. Many observers have addressed these concerns with conflicting conclusions. However, the importance of the discussion is not that someone will be right or wrong but that the conversation might help journalists better understand the trends, and, therefore, help them influence the ways they react to the trends.
Much of the disagreement in the discussions comes from a failure to address the particular type of markets being discussed. National journalism will be affected by the trends, but the number of news outlets addressing national issues insures that citizens will continue to receive national news from a diversity of outlets. Local news markets, however, have smaller consumer and advertising bases, and the news organizations in these markets confront a more uncertain future than do national news organizations.
The following predictions about the future of local journalism (coverage of communities, towns and cities) start with some observations about current conditions and then suggest what these mean for the future of local journalism.
- Despite the decline in circulation and ratings, a significant number of people in the United States want local quality journalism delivered in a variety of forms. This is demonstrated by the fact that as circulation has declined Web visits have grown. Unique visitors to newspaper Web sites increased by 27% between January 2007 and January 2009 (Newspaper Association of America, http://www.naa.org/TrendsandNumbers/Newspaper-Websites.aspx).
- The majority of local businesses that buy advertising on the Internet do not yet understand how best to use online advertising. With all new media, it takes a while for businesses to understand how the new medium can be used. On the basis of my discussions with people who work in online advertising, I believe most business people are still learning the optimal use of Web advertising.
- The advertising revenues that news companies make online will be less than revenues made through their old medium. It’s simple: as competition for advertising revenue increases, all else being equal, the share of revenue per news outlet will decline.
- In the past, a significant proportion of people in local communities have been willing to help pay for local journalism. Some observers assume that people will not pay for online information, but many of us continue to subscribe to local newspapers, as well as pay for access to a variety of media. People who value news will pay. Just how many people will pay and how much they will pay are issues that each market must decide through trial and error.
If one accepts these propositions, I believe they imply the following for local journalism in the future.
A. The FCC will loosen cross-ownership rules, and newspapers will merge with television stations in many markets. Economic hardship was behind the deregulation of radio, and the best way to increase revenues and profits is to reduce competition through merger and acquisition.
B. Many smaller towns will have only one news organization, and medium-sized cities will likely have two primary daily news organizations with the possibility of a citizen journalism site and/or smaller news organization. This is the logical outcome of deregulation. Of course, how this affects journalism in local markets is a complex issue and will vary from market to market.
C. The model of a daily Web site with print publications on a limited number of days, which is being experimented with in some locations, is likely to catch on with more news organizations. Many people still enjoy reading paper, but they are also too busy to read every day. This compromise cuts costs and allows people to continue to indulge their paper habit until a more portable, flexible and cheaper way of reading digital newspapers comes along.
D. Cities that have two or more news organizations will likely see those news organizations segment the local news market into an upscale segment for higher socioeconomic classes and a downscale segment for lower socioeconomic classes. The upscale news organization will emphasize text about politics and social issues, although not exclusively, and the downscale will emphasize video about crime and scandal, although not exclusively. The downscale news organization will be advertising based, while the upscale will be financed by advertising, subscription, and other revenue streams. The Project for Excellence in Journalism found this tendency for local TV news in a series of studies roughly a decade ago. Such segmentation makes the news products more efficient for advertisers by being more targeted.
Of course, the forces determining the future of local news outlets are far more complex than can be dealt with in this limited amount of space. But the eventual outcome of the transition is in the hands of the citizens in individual communities. Communities generally receive the level of journalism they will support.
Stephen Lacy has written or co-written more than 85 refereed journal articles, more than 50 refereed conference papers, ten book chapters and four books. He has co-edited two other books and written numerous other articles. Before entering the academic world, he was a photographer, and he worked as an editor of three suburban weeklies and a reporter at a suburban daily near Dallas, Texas.